jul 4, 2025
draft theory: findings from my 2015-2024 nfl draft analysis
this post turns a long thread into one narrative: where draft capital was spent well, where it was burned, and what surplus value says about how teams actually create advantage.
top 5 all-time draft gems (2015-2024)
these players did not just beat expectations. they blew past the price implied by where they were picked.
- tyreek hill (r5 p165): +259.0 surplus | ev 147.4 → actual 406.4
- budda baker (r2 p36): +173.8 surplus | ev 110.0 → actual 283.8
- t.j. watt (r1 p30): +168.2 surplus | ev 107.0 → actual 275.2
- dak prescott (r4 p135): +161.6 surplus | ev 7.2 → actual 168.8
- chris jones (r2 p37): +156.4 surplus | ev 42.1 → actual 198.5
best and worst positions to draft
this is where the draft gets counterintuitive: some positions look chaotic in single seasons but still deliver positive long-run surplus.
best avg surplus
- +5.6 nt (nose tackle)
- +4.6 center
- +4.0 punter
- +3.6 guard
- +0.8 qb
worst avg surplus
- -1.6 wr
- -2.6 cb
- -3.2 de
takeaway: interior linemen look consistently underrated, edge and db outcomes skew boom-bust, and wr has lagged in surplus terms more than most people expect.
top 5 biggest draft busts (2015-2024)
these are the picks where draft cost and on-field return were the most out of balance.
- eli apple (r1 p10): -76.8 surplus | ev 142.6 → actual 65.8
- ed oliver (r1 p9): -75.8 surplus | ev 164.2 → actual 88.4
- malik mcdowell (r2 p35): -70.0 surplus | low realized return
best and worst drafting teams (2015-2024)
using average surplus value per pick (actual minus expected), you can see which front offices repeatedly found value beyond consensus.
- 1. chiefs: +10.9 (71 picks)
- 2. cowboys: +5.3 (77 picks)
- 3. rams (stl + la): +4.0 (88 picks)
- 4. saints: +2.3 (58 picks)
- 5. ravens: +2.1